The AI Valuation Conundrum: Buyers and Sellers Are Both Guessing – February 2026

The current dislocation between fundamentals and valuations in public and private markets is being attributed to AI. In reality, it reflects the absence of a credible framework for pricing AI risk. Buyers are applying broad discounts, companies are struggling to defend valuations, and both sides are substituting assumptions for detailed analysis.

AI risk is being priced as a sector-level haircut rather than business specific exposure. It’s indiscriminate, hitting most sectors and companies of all sizes. That’s creating mispricing and an opportunity for companies that can clearly explain where they stand to benefit and where they’re exposed.